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Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Not Our Best Poll Ever


This report of the Communicate Research poll reveals that Labour is on 27% (down 4%), the Tories on 36% (up 1%), the Lib Dems on 22% (up 2%), and others on 15% (up 1%).

There's no point pretending this is anything other than awful for Labour, which has slipped to its lowest poll ratings since its crushing election defeat under Michael Foot in 1983.

On a superficial glance it's also not good for the Tories, who are becalmed in the mid-30s and would only just scrape a majority on these figures. But worryingly for us, Labour is losing support both among the general public and our "natural" voters, with Labour supporters the least likely to back their party in the next General Election. In contrast, 90% of "natural Tories" plan to vote Conservative. So what the poll covers up is the likelihood that Labour's turnout will be far lower than in the past, while the Conservative turnout is higher than in previous elections. The impact of this would be a thumping majority for Macaroon.

I'm just like Tony Blair - I'm the son of a blacksmith, he's the son of a bastardI'd like to believe that the immediate aftermath of the leadership transition would give us enough of a boost to put us back in front. But the opinion polls continue to predict larger Tory majorities with Brown in charge than with Blair hanging onto office. So wondering whether Brown's policy initiatives are sufficiently bold to capture the public imagination would be a nugatory exercise.

The article I read seemed very professional and well-balanced, finishing with the objective and unemotional observation "British Prime Minister Tony Blair will probably step down after the [Welsh, Scottish and local] election and Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown is predicted to be the Prime Minister. Communicate Research is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules."

That's why I said "Ouch!" earlier. The report is from Press TV Iran.


Clear Hardly said...

Madmood Afterdinnerjihad looks well pleased with the results - did he contribute in some small way to this outcome?

Ingrid Polansky said...

I think he'd just received news that Press TV Iran had won the Lord Reith prize for Objective Journalism in the English Language.