It's Hazel's Party Supporters Wot Done It!

Now I've been able to analyse the results in more detail, an awful message is emerging. Hazel's supporters amongst Party members were responsible for Harriet being elected Deputy Leader. While we were all focused on stopping Cruddas, we let Harman in by the back door. The following table shows the results at each round of the transfer voting, with the eliminated candidate in each round highlighted by strike-through. The figures on the right show how the transfer votes were distributed following the elimination in the previous round, leading to the new totals on the left. I've highlighted the transfer votes more clearly in the graphs below, which show graphically who benefited from transfer voting from the members of affiliate organisations, Party members and MPs/MEPs respectively, along with the totals.

You can see that Jon Cruddas had a lead over Harriet Harman in the first round voting, due to heavy support from the affiliates. But whereas most affiliates and most MPs and MEPs did as they were advised and transferred their votes to Alan Johnson, the Party members gave Harriet one vote (almost) for every vote they gave to Alan. And the 2.3% transfer vote to Harriet Harman was more than enough to give her victory in the final round. It's been said that Jon Cruddas was responsible for Harman's victory - and indeed his supporters did give her preference over Johnson. But by nothing like the "transfer landslide" that many commentators predicted and some were still repeating after the vote.

The brutal reality is that, if just one in five of the voters in Hazel's camp who transferred their votes to Harriet had transferred them to Alan instead, he would have won. It just makes me sick.