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Monday, June 25, 2007

It's Hazel's Party Supporters Wot Done It!

Now I've been able to analyse the results in more detail, an awful message is emerging. Hazel's supporters amongst Party members were responsible for Harriet being elected Deputy Leader. While we were all focused on stopping Cruddas, we let Harman in by the back door. The following table shows the results at each round of the transfer voting, with the eliminated candidate in each round highlighted by strike-through. The figures on the right show how the transfer votes were distributed following the elimination in the previous round, leading to the new totals on the left. I've highlighted the transfer votes more clearly in the graphs below, which show graphically who benefited from transfer voting from the members of affiliate organisations, Party members and MPs/MEPs respectively, along with the totals.

You can see that Jon Cruddas had a lead over Harriet Harman in the first round voting, due to heavy support from the affiliates. But whereas most affiliates and most MPs and MEPs did as they were advised and transferred their votes to Alan Johnson, the Party members gave Harriet one vote (almost) for every vote they gave to Alan. And the 2.3% transfer vote to Harriet Harman was more than enough to give her victory in the final round. It's been said that Jon Cruddas was responsible for Harman's victory - and indeed his supporters did give her preference over Johnson. But by nothing like the "transfer landslide" that many commentators predicted and some were still repeating after the vote.

The brutal reality is that, if just one in five of the voters in Hazel's camp who transferred their votes to Harriet had transferred them to Alan instead, he would have won. It just makes me sick.

1 comment:

Randy Oz said...

If you add up the total transfers to each of the candidates, you discover that Harman and Johnson received almost exactly the same number and this was not the deciding factor. However, Johnson won most transfers from affiliates and MPs, whereas Harman got hers from the Party members. So you were right about it being the Party members who tipped the balance in her favour in the end. But every one of the eliminated candidates transferred more Party votes to Harman than Johnson, so it's more the Party to blame than poor little chipmunk.