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Sunday, February 04, 2007

Boundary Changes Mean A Certain Hung Parliament

The Rawlings & Thrasher notional election results have now been published. These are the "official numbers" that the BBC will quote in their coverage of the next election - they take the 2005 election results and transpose them onto the new boundaries on which the next General Election will be fought.

According to the BBC this afternoon, the study spells disaster for Labour's chances at the next election. The BBC lead headline is "A hung parliament is much more likely at the next election as proposed boundary changes will reduce the number of Labour MPs, say researchers." But closer investigation of the data suggests that this analysis is being decidedly polite.

Simply allowing for the boundary changes based on the last election would leave Labour with a healthy working majority. But a swing of just 1.6% would lose Labour its overall majority. Nobody other than those participating in the Care In The Community programme thinks that the swing against us will be less than this figure. So we're stuffed at the next election.

On the other hand, maybe things would improve if The Great Leader were to step down. I've never argued this before - even this morning I was calling on him to stand firm - but with opinion polls starting to show majorities of the electorate in support of an immediate resignation...

2 comments:

vivien alham said...

At least after we get rid of Blair and his majority Mr Macaroon won't be moving into No. 10 unless he does a deal with the LibDems and the minority parties.

Dyanne Costello said...

A hung parliament sounds dandy to me. Let's start at the top and work our way down! How soon before Blair gets hung?