Blears 33/1, Johnson 33/19

With the ballot papers now going out, the latest betting odds from Betfair show Hazel at 33/1 against and Alan Johnson at 33/19 against. I'm no mathematician, but I think this suggests that Alan is 19 times more likely to win than Hazel. So on this basis I'm giving my second preference vote to Alan Johnson. At least this gives me some chance of avoiding embarrassment by claiming to have supported the person who is now certain to come either top or second in the ballot.

Whilst they differ on some specific issues, both Alan and Hazel are coming from the same place in terms of wanting to build on the successes of the last 10 years of Labour Government by continuing to focus on the centre-right of British politics. To one extent or another all the other candidates have expressed some socialist leanings during the current campaign that could be used to embarrass Gordon Brown during a General Election campaign. So this gives me another reason to give Alan Johnson my second preference - in fact it's something I'm doing with enthusiasm.

I hope Alan's supporters will reciprocate by giving their second preference votes to Hazel. No, I can't. I can't say that with a straight face. Especially given that when Alan announced his candidature he told the world that he was standing as a unity candidate because he couldn't stand the prospect of a handbag fight between the Brownite candidate Harman and the Blairite candidate Blears.