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Friday, May 09, 2008

This Poll

Yes, the one published by Rupert Murdoch just before he finally jumps ship and declares the full support of his empire for the Conservatives. The one showing the Tories 26% ahead of Labour, with the Tories on 49% and Labour on 23% - the lowest rating for the Labour Party since Ramsay MacDonald. Things wouldn't be so bad if the poll didn't show that these figures depend on the charisma of Gordon Brown as Leader - with even worse results predicted under the leadership of prospective successors Ed Balls, David Miliband, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman, Andy Burnham, Alan Johnson and James Purnell - as well as Tony Blair on a comeback tour.

Electoral Calculus projects a Tory majority of 56 if a General Election were to take place tomorrow, based on local opinion poll results and electoral boundary changes. I don't want to publish the analysis of the May 1st results I've seen, because I don't want to be responsible for a number of Labour MPs defending majorities in excess of 15,000 jumping off Big Ben. But here goes anyway - the following Labour MPs would be pretty much guaranteed to lose their seats based on last week's results:

With full employment, prospects for former Labour MPs look goodNick Ainger, Janet Anderson, Ian Austin, Gordon Banks, Celia Barlow, Roger Berry, Bob Blizzard, David Borrow, Ben Bradshaw, Russell Brown, Karen Buck, Colin Burgon, Alan Campbell, Martin Caton, Ian Cawsey, Ben Chapman, David Chaytor, Charles Clarke, Vernon Coaker, Rosie Cooper, David Crausby, Mary Creagh, Jon Cruddas, Ann Cryer, Jim Cunningham, Claire Curtis-Thomas, Janet Dean, Parmjit Dhanda, Andrew Dismore, David Drew, Clive Efford, Jim Fitzpatrick, Paul Flynn, Barbara Follett, Michael Foster, Michael Foster, Ian Gibson, Linda Gilroy, Patrick Hall, Mike Hall, Fabian Hamilton, Sylvia Heal, Phil Hope, Kelvin Hopkins, Lindsay Hoyle, Joan Humble, John Hutton, Brian Jenkins, Sally Keeble, Ann Keen, Ruth Kelly, Sadiq Khan, David Kidney, Jim Knight, David Lepper, Tom Levitt, Martin Linton, Andrew Mackinlay, Shahid Malik, Judy Mallaber, John Mann, Robert Marris, Eric Martlew, Christine McCafferty, Sarah McCarthy-Fry, James McGovern, Shona McIsaac, Tony McNulty, Gillian Merron, Andrew Miller, Laura Moffatt, Chris Mole, Margaret Moran, Julie Morgan, Kali Mountford, Doug Naysmith, Dan Norris, Mike O'Brien, Bill Olner, Albert Owen, Nick Palmer, Ian Pearson, James Plaskitt, Greg Pope, Gordon Prentice, Gwyn Prosser, Bill Rammell, Jamie Reed, Andy Reed, Linda Riordan, Chris Ruane, Christine Russell, Martin Salter, Jonathan Shaw, Marsha Singh, Andrew Slaughter, Angela Smith, Geraldine Smith, Andrew Smith, Jacqui Smith, John Smith, Anna Snelgrove, Helen Southworth, Phyllis Starkey, Howard Stoate, Gisela Stuart, David Taylor, Dari Taylor, Gareth Thomas, Emily Thornberry, Mark Todd, Paul Truswell, Desmond Turner, Lynda Waltho, Claire Ward, Betty Williams, Michael Wills, Mike Wood, Tony Wright, David Wright.

Still, it's not all bad news. The list may include four Cabinet Ministers, but it also includes Jon Cruddas.

So where now? Is the New Labour Project finished, as claimed by Seumas Milne in The Guardian, Rishabh Bhandari in The Times of India, Steve Richards in the Independent and many other Labour-hating journalists. Or is Peter Mandelson in The Daily Telegraph right when he tells Gordon that he's not New Labour enough? I think you know where I stand on this. I just hope the Labour MPs above will see sense and be prepared to sacrifice themselves for the greater good.


Mrs Jones said...

Mrs Jones said ...

God, I never realised there were so many MPs with the name of Smith. They obviously need thinning out for starters.

Luke Akehurst said...

The really strange bit is that there are no Joneses on the list, but then perhaps that's because we don't have many more Welsh seats to lose.

a very public sociologist said...

Lol! I for one won't be mourning the likes of Jacqui Smith and Ruth Kelly if their careers pass into the night. It's incredible to think New Labour see the root of their woes in not being New Labour enough. Makes you wonder what it will take to bring them crashing back down to reality.